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Weekly Economic Update 9-17-13 by John Jastremski

September 19, 2013

 HOUSEHOLDS BUY CAUTIOUSLY

Retail sales rose an underwhelming 0.2% in August, the Commerce Department noted Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% advance, which would have matched the July gain for the indicator. Analysts were left wondering if the subdued buying hinted at slower economic growth in the third quarter.1

INTEREST RATES WEIGH ON CONSUMER SENTIMENT

September’s preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 76.8, the poorest reading since April. Why did it descend so much from the final August reading of 82.1? Survey director Richard Curtin cited a “cooling housing market” and “growing concerns that higher interest rates will diminish the pace of economic growth as well as job gains.”2

WHOLESALE INFLATION UP 0.3% IN AUGUST

This gain in the Producer Price Index exceeded the 0.2% rise forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters. The core PPI was flat for August. Annualized wholesale inflation was running at just 1.4% last month.1,3

DOW HAS BEST WEEK SINCE JANUARY

As fears about missile strikes on Syria eased last week, stocks rose in advance of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy statement. The CBOE VIX fell 10.66% in five days, and the Dow climbed 3.04% during its second-best week of 2013 to settle at 15,376.06 Friday. The NASDAQ (+1.70% to 3,722.18) and S&P 500 (+1.98% to 1,687.99) also had solid weeks. While all three indices are up more than 3% so far in September, the Russell 2000 is ahead of them all (+4.26% MTD at Friday’s close).1

THIS WEEK: Monday brings the Federal Reserve’s report on August industrial output. The August Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday, along with September’s NAHB Housing Market Index and earnings from Adobe Systems. On Wednesday, global markets will respond to an eagerly anticipated Fed policy statement and press conference; the Census Bureau provides data on August housing starts and building permits, and earnings reports arrive from FedEx, General Mills and Oracle. Thursday offers quarterly results from Rite Aid and ConAgra, August existing home sales numbers, and the latest initial jobless claims figures. The new iPhones are in stores on Friday, and that also happens to be a quadruple witching day.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+17.34

+13.56

+6.92

+6.23

NASDAQ

+23.27

+17.95

+12.92

+10.07

S&P 500

+18.36

+15.62

+6.97

+6.57

REAL YIELD

9/13 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.80%

-0.72%

1.79%

2.18%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 9/13/131,4,5,6

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends. 

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/kvcdr7a [9/13/13]

2 – dailyfinance.com/2013/09/13/consumer-confidence-economy-falls-interest-rates-housing-market/ [9/13/13]

3 – bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

4 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/13/13]

5 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [9/13/13]

6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [9/13/13]

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John Jastremski is a Representative with FSC Securities and may be reached at http://www.theretirementgroup.com.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of John Jastremski and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.

 

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