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Weekly Economic Update 4/30

April 30, 2013

Q1 GDP COMES IN AT 2.5%

The initial estimate of first quarter growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis disappointed some analysts who had expected 3% expansion or better. Personal consumption and inventory accumulation were the prime sources of growth. Personal spending rose 3.2% in the quarter, but real disposable personal income fell 5.3%, which led the personal savings rate to slip to 2.6% from 4.7% in Q4. The big picture? The economic recovery is definite, but still sluggish. Overall durable goods orders dropped 5.7% in March, according to the Commerce Department.1,2

EXISTING HOME SALES FALL; NEW HOME SALES RISE While March brought a 0.6% dip in residential resales, the National Association of Realtors also noted the 10.3% gain in the pace of home buying from a year before. The Census Bureau reported a 1.5% gain in new home sales last month, with the year-over-year improvement in the sales pace at 18.5%.3

CONSUMERS GROW MORE POSITIVE AS APRIL ENDS

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast April’s final consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan to rise mildly to 73.2. Instead, it jumped to 76.4. That was still underneath the final March mark of 78.6.4

STOCKS KEEP ADVANCING

Across a volatile week, the Dow went +1.13% to settle at 14,712.55 Friday. The NASDAQ (+2.28% to 3,279.26) and S&P 500 (+1.74% to 1,582.24) also improved. At Friday’s close, about half of S&P 500 companies had reported quarterly results; just 42% had surpassed revenue forecasts, but 69% had beaten earnings expectations.4

THIS WEEK: The March consumer spending report arrives Monday, plus NAR’s March pending home sales figures and earnings from Hartford Financial, Newmont Mining and Buffalo Wild Wings. Tuesday offers the Conference Board’s April consumer confidence poll, February’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Q1 results from Pfizer, Aetna, UBS, Deutsche Bank, BP, NYSE Euronext, Sirius XM, US Steel and DreamWorks. Wednesday brings ADP’s April employment report, ISM’s April manufacturing index, a policy statement from the Federal Reserve, and earnings from Facebook, Visa, Allstate, Comcast, MasterCard, Merck, Time Warner, CVS, Chesapeake Energy, Clorox, Humana, CBS, Marriott, MetLife and Yelp. Earnings from Kellogg, GM, Royal Dutch Shell, Beazer Homes, AIG and Kraft Foods come out Thursday, plus April’s Challenger job cut report. On Friday, the Labor Department’s April employment report arrives along with ISM’s April service sector index and quarterly results from Berkshire Hathaway.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+12.27

+11.42

+2.82

+7.71

NASDAQ

+8.60

+7.50

+7.07

+12.86

S&P 500

+10.94

+13.02

+2.64

+7.60

REAL YIELD

4/26 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.68%

-0.29%

1.60%

2.18%

 

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/26/134,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of John Jastremski, and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.

The Retirement Group is not affiliated with nor endorsed by fidelity.com, netbenefits.fidelity.com, hewitt.com, resources.hewitt.com, access.att.com, ING Retirement, ExxonMobil, Glaxosmithkline, Merck, Pfizer, AT&T, Qwest, Chevron, Hughes, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Verizon, Bank of America, Alcatel-Lucent or by your employer. We are an independent financial advisory group that specializes in transition planning and lump sum distribution. Please call our office at 800-900-5867 if you have additional questions or need help in the retirement planning process.

John Jastremski is a Representative with FSC Securities and may
be reached at http://www.theretirementgroup.com.

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