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Weekly Economic Update

February 4, 2013

MORE HIRING … AND YET, MORE UNEMPLOYMENT

In January, the jobless rate ticked up to 7.9%. The Labor Department countered that with some good news: 127,000 more workers were hired across November and December than previously thought. Last month, 157,000 new jobs were created.1

EXAMINING CONSUMER BAROMETERS

According to the Commerce Department, personal spending rose 0.2% in December while personal incomes rose 2.6% (thanks in part to dividends being issued ahead of the fiscal cliff). The savings rate hit 6.5%, a 43-month high; after-tax incomes improved 2.8%. Elsewhere, while the Conference Board’s January consumer confidence survey plunged 8.1 points to a 14-month low of 58.6, the University of Michigan’s final January consumer sentiment poll improved 0.9 points to 73.8.2,3

GDP WANES; HOME PRICES, MANUFACTURING PERK UP

The economy contracted 0.1% in the past quarter, according to the initial estimate of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts termed it an anomaly, with reduced defense spending a big factor. The Institute for Supply Management’s January PMI showed an impressive gain of 2.9% to 53.1. November’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed an overall 5.5% year-over-year improvement; the National Association of Realtors reported a 4.3% decline in pending home sales in December.1,4,5

DOW ENDS WEEK AT 14,009.79

Friday’s close was within 200 points of the index’s 2007 peak. The Dow gained 0.82% last week, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.93% (to 3,179.10) and the S&P 500 gained 0.68% (to 1,513.17).6,7,8,9

THIS WEEK: Monday, data on December factory orders arrives plus earnings reports from Anadarko, Hartford Financial, Clorox, Gannett, Humana, and Yum! Brands. Tuesday brings January’s ISM service sector PMI and earnings results from Aflac, Allergan, Expedia, Kellogg, Panera, Sirius XM, Estee Lauder, Toyota, Chipotle, Walt Disney and Zynga. Wednesday offers earnings from Time Warner, Akamai, Allstate, Cummins, CVS, Fifth Street, Green Mountain, Ralph Lauren, Marathon Oil, News Corp., Prudential Financial, Tesoro, Visa, GlaxoSmithKline and Yelp. Thursday brings the latest initial claims figures and results from Cigna, Coca-Cola, Coinstar, Monster, Hasbro, Activision Blizzard, LinkedIn, Philip Morris, Scripps Networks and Sprint Nextel. Friday, AOL announces Q4 results.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+6.91

+10.17

+1.99

+7.40

NASDAQ

+5.29

+11.62

+6.35

+14.07

S&P 500

+6.10

+14.28

+1.69

+7.68

REAL YIELD

2/1 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

-0.55%

-0.28%

1.31%

2.34%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/1/126,7,8,10,11,12

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

Disclosure

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-01/januarys-strong-jobs-report-trumps-a-decline-in-gdp [2/1/13]
2 – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-31/consumer-spending-in-u-s-climbed-in-december-as-incomes-surged.html [1/31/13]
3 – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-01/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-increase-may-boost-spending.html [2/1/13]
4 – http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [2/1/13]
5 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/01/28-01 [2/1/13]
6 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [2/1/13]
7 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [2/1/13]
8 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [2/1/13]
9 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [2/1/13]
10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=2%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [2/1/13]
11 – http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/1/13]
12 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2003/ofm010803.pdf [1/8/03]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of John Jastremski, and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.


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John Jastremski is a Representative with FSC Securities and may
be reached at http://www.theretirementgroup.com.

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