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Economic Update 11/26

November 29, 2012

 

MORE GOOD NEWS FROM THE HOUSING MARKET

Existing home sales rose 2.1% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR noted a 10.9% annual gain in the sales pace and an 11.1% year-over-year rise in the median sale price to $178,600. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index came in at 46 for November, a six-and-a-half year peak. Housing starts increased 3.6% in October to a five-year high.1,2

DID CONSUMER SENTIMENT IMPROVE THIS MONTH?

The University of Michigan’s bellwether consumer sentiment survey came in at a final mark of 82.7 for November, up 0.1 point from the final October reading. The index’s preliminary November reading had been 84.9.3

WILL HOLIDAY SHOPPING SURPASS FORECASTS?

The National Retail Federation projects 5 million fewer Black Friday weekend shoppers this year, but also a 4.1% annual gain in holiday retail sales. A Reuters survey showed that 21% of shoppers think they will spend less this holiday season, while 11% think they will spend more.4

 

CHEAPEST HOME LOANS IN DECADES

With a helping hand from QE3, the average interest rate on the 30-year FRM fell to 3.34%, a new record low, in Freddie Mac’s November 20 Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, interest rates on these loans were hovering near 4%.2

DOW CLOSES ABOVE 13,000

Congress took its Thanksgiving recess last week, and no discouraging news on the fiscal cliff talks amounted to relatively good news for Wall Street. The Dow (+3.35% to 13,009.68), S&P 500 (+3.62% to 1,409.15) and NASDAQ (+3.99% to 2,966.85) all advanced across three-and-a-half trading days. Gold settled Friday at $1,751.80 an ounce, oil at $88.36 a barrel.5,6,7

THIS WEEK: No major U.S. economic reports are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, September’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out plus the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence poll, data on October hard goods orders and earnings from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. Wednesday, TiVo, Aeropostale, Neiman Marcus, Ann and Fifth Street Finance issue earnings reports and a new Fed Beige Book appears plus data on October new home sales. Thursday, NAR’s report on October pending home sales, the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the latest initial claims complement earnings from Kroger, Tiffany, Barnes & Noble, Mitel and Cracker Barrel. Friday sees the release of the October personal spending report.

% CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG
DJIA +6.48 +15.56 +0.04 +4.78
NASDAQ +13.88 +20.60 +2.85 +10.20
S&P 500 +12.05 +21.29 -0.44 +5.14
REAL YIELD 11/23 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS -0.72% -0.01% 1.63% 3.10%

 
Sources: thestreet.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 11/23/125,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of John Jastremski, and The Retirement Group or FSC Financial Corp. This information should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representatives nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information or call 800-900-5867.


The Retirement Group is not affiliated with nor endorsed by fidelity.com, netbenefits.fidelity.com, hewitt.com, resources.hewitt.com, access.att.com, ING Retirement, AT&T, Qwest, Chevron, Hughes, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, ExxonMobil, Glaxosmithkline, Merck, Pfizer, Verizon, Bank of America, Alcatel-Lucent or by your employer. We are an independent financial advisory group that specializes in transition planning and lump sum distribution. Please call our office at 800-900-5867 if you have additional questions or need help in the retirement planning process.

John Jastremski is a Representative with FSC Securities and may
be reached at http://www.theretirementgroup.com.

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